Burnley vs Wolves odds & probabilities

Championship · Fri, 16 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK

Burnley

1–2

Full time

Wolves

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Burnley21%

Draw26%

Wolves53%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 39 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.06

Burnley

1.83

Wolves

Most likely scores

1–111%
0–110%
1–210%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Burnley to Win21%32%3.10

Draw26%27%3.71

Wolves to Win53%41%2.45

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Burnley or Draw47%59%1.69

Wolves or Draw79%68%1.48

Burnley or Wolves to Win74%73%1.37

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%90%1.11

Under 0.5 Goals6%10%10.33

Over 1.5 Goals80%75%1.34

Under 1.5 Goals20%25%3.96

Over 2.5 Goals57%53%1.90

Under 2.5 Goals43%47%2.11

Over 3.5 Goals32%32%3.11

Under 3.5 Goals68%68%1.47

Over 4.5 Goals11%17%5.90

Under 4.5 Goals89%83%1.20

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes60%57%1.75

Both Teams to Score - No40%43%2.33

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Burnley to Score First35%43%2.31

No Goal6%8%13.26

Wolves to Score First60%49%2.03

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Burnley Leads at Half-time20%––

Half-time Draw40%––

Wolves Leads at Half-time40%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 39 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Burnley vs Wolves match analysis

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Burnley face Wolves on 16 October 2026 (Championship). The MatchIQ model rates a Burnley win at 21%, a draw at 26% and a Wolves win at 53%, which makes Wolves a clear favourite at 53%. The margin-free average of 39 bookmakers is 32%, 27% and 41% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.06 for Burnley and 1.83 for Wolves, 2.89 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 80%, over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.