Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin odds & probabilities

2. Bundesliga · Fri, 16 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK

Holstein Kiel

0–0

Full time

Hertha Berlin

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Holstein Kiel36%

Draw28%

Hertha Berlin36%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.31

Holstein Kiel

1.44

Hertha Berlin

Most likely scores

1–112%
0–19%
1–29%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Holstein Kiel to Win36%34%2.98

Draw28%24%4.15

Hertha Berlin to Win36%42%2.36

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Holstein Kiel or Draw64%58%1.73

Hertha Berlin or Draw64%66%1.51

Holstein Kiel or Hertha Berlin to Win72%76%1.32

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals95%93%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals5%7%13.87

Over 1.5 Goals81%84%1.19

Under 1.5 Goals19%16%6.13

Over 2.5 Goals59%66%1.52

Under 2.5 Goals42%34%2.91

Over 3.5 Goals34%46%2.18

Under 3.5 Goals66%54%1.84

Over 4.5 Goals17%28%3.54

Under 4.5 Goals83%72%1.39

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes63%67%1.50

Both Teams to Score - No37%33%3.00

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Holstein Kiel to Score First45%45%2.21

No Goal6%5%18.79

Hertha Berlin to Score First49%49%2.02

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Holstein Kiel Leads at Half-time27%––

Half-time Draw42%––

Hertha Berlin Leads at Half-time31%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin match analysis

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Holstein Kiel face Hertha Berlin on 16 October 2026 (2. Bundesliga). The MatchIQ model rates a Holstein Kiel win at 36%, a draw at 28% and a Hertha Berlin win at 36%, which makes Holstein Kiel only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 36%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 34%, 24% and 42% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.31 for Holstein Kiel and 1.44 for Hertha Berlin, 2.75 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 81%, over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 63%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.