STARTS 18 OCTOBER

1.40+ Challenge

In phase one the model hit at a very high rate on safe, short-priced picks. Now we raise the bar: only odds of 1.40 or longer, in public, with every miss on the record. Can the model still make money at these prices?

BANKROLL
1,000.0
started at 1,000
NET
+0.0u
ROI 0.0%
RECORD
0–0
4 pending
AVG ODDS
1.60
median price at publication

Goal: in profit after 100 picks

4/100

The bankroll chart appears once the first results are in.

Every pick

  1. #4Leeds – Manchester UnitedDay 1 · Sun 18 Oct · Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.66pending
  2. #3Juventus – LazioDay 1 · Sun 18 Oct · Juventus to Score First @ 1.50pending
  3. #2AC Milan – AtalantaDay 1 · Sun 18 Oct · Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.41pending
  4. #1Real Madrid – Sevilla FCDay 1 · Sun 18 Oct · Both Teams to Score - Yes @ 1.85pending

The rules

  • Every pick published on our Shorts from 18 October 2026 at odds of 1.40 or longer counts.
  • Flat 10 units a pick, at the median price of about 45 bookmakers when the pick goes out.
  • The bankroll starts at 1,000 units. Goal: in profit after 100 picks.
  • Misses are never deleted. A Short that could not go out in time does not count and does not appear here.
  • This is a statistics experiment, not betting advice. We do not suggest staking real money.

Phase one: the safe picks

Over the last 7 days our short-priced picks hit 105/113 (93%). At those prices a hit rate alone says little, so now we try the harder thing. At 1.40+ a realistic hit rate is around 60–70%; any profit has to come from pricing the odds right.

Every result →