Juventus vs Lazio prediction

Serie A · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK

Juventus

19:45

1d 4h

Lazio

Our picks

First goal
Juventus to Score First
Model 63.8% · Bookmakers 60.2%
Odds≈1.6661%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Juventus59%

Draw25%

Lazio17%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.67

Juventus

0.70

Lazio

Most likely scores

1–016%
2–013%
1–111%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Juventus to Score First" a 64% chance; the bookmaker average is 60%, so the model is 4 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Juventus 1.67, Lazio 0.70; most likely score 1-0 (16%). Average odds at publication: 1.66.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Juventus to Win59%57%1.76

Draw25%25%4.04

Lazio to Win17%18%5.47

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Juventus or Draw83%82%1.22

Lazio or Draw41%43%2.32

Juventus or Lazio to Win76%75%1.33

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals91%90%1.11

Under 0.5 Goals9%10%10.43

Over 1.5 Goals71%73%1.37

Under 1.5 Goals29%27%3.67

Over 2.5 Goals48%49%2.04

Under 2.5 Goals52%51%1.96

Over 3.5 Goals22%29%3.50

Under 3.5 Goals78%71%1.40

Over 4.5 Goals12%15%6.81

Under 4.5 Goals89%85%1.17

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes46%49%2.03

Both Teams to Score - No54%51%1.97

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Juventus to Score FirstMatchIQ pick64%60%1.66

No Goal9%9%11.10

Lazio to Score First27%31%3.24

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Juventus Leads at Half-time42%––

Half-time Draw44%––

Lazio Leads at Half-time14%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Juventus vs Lazio match analysis

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Juventus face Lazio on 18 October 2026 (Serie A). The MatchIQ model rates a Juventus win at 59%, a draw at 25% and a Lazio win at 17%, which makes Juventus a clear favourite at 59%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 57%, 25% and 18% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.67 for Juventus and 0.70 for Lazio, 2.37 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 71%, over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 46%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (16%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Juventus to Score First" a 64% chance; the bookmaker average is 60%, so the model is 4 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Juventus 1.67, Lazio 0.70; most likely score 1-0 (16%). Average odds at publication: 1.66.

We published 1 pick for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.