Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC prediction

La Liga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK

Real Madrid

20:00

1d 6h

Sevilla FC

Our picks

Match result
Real Madrid to Win
Model 72% · Bookmakers 75.1%
Odds1.2474%
First goal
Real Madrid to Score First
Model 73% · Bookmakers 71.9%
Odds1.2572%
Both teams to score
Both Teams to Score - Yes
Model 58.6% · Bookmakers 51.9%
Odds≈1.9354%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Real Madrid72%

Draw19%

Sevilla FC9%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

2.37

Real Madrid

0.75

Sevilla FC

Most likely scores

2–012%
1–011%
3–010%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Real Madrid to Win" a 72% chance; the bookmaker average is 75%, so the model is 3 points more cautious than the market. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.37, Sevilla FC 0.75; most likely score 2-0 (12%). Average odds at publication: 1.24.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Real Madrid to WinMatchIQ pick72%75%1.33

Draw19%15%6.60

Sevilla FC to Win9%10%10.28

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Real Madrid or Draw92%90%1.11

Sevilla FC or Draw28%25%4.02

Real Madrid or Sevilla FC to Win81%85%1.18

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals96%94%1.07

Under 0.5 Goals4%6%15.85

Over 1.5 Goals81%84%1.19

Under 1.5 Goals19%16%6.31

Over 2.5 Goals60%66%1.51

Under 2.5 Goals40%34%2.96

Over 3.5 Goals36%46%2.18

Under 3.5 Goals65%54%1.85

Over 4.5 Goals21%29%3.50

Under 4.5 Goals79%71%1.40

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - YesMatchIQ pick59%52%1.93

Both Teams to Score - No41%48%2.08

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Real Madrid to Score FirstMatchIQ pick73%72%1.39

No Goal4%5%21.13

Sevilla FC to Score First23%23%4.28

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Real Madrid Leads at Half-time53%––

Half-time Draw35%––

Sevilla FC Leads at Half-time12%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 49 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla FC match analysis

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Real Madrid face Sevilla FC on 18 October 2026 (La Liga). The MatchIQ model rates a Real Madrid win at 72%, a draw at 19% and a Sevilla FC win at 9%, which makes Real Madrid a clear favourite at 72%. The margin-free average of 49 bookmakers is 75%, 15% and 10% respectively.

Expected goals are 2.37 for Real Madrid and 0.75 for Sevilla FC, 3.12 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 81%, over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Real Madrid to Win" a 72% chance; the bookmaker average is 75%, so the model is 3 points more cautious than the market. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.37, Sevilla FC 0.75; most likely score 2-0 (12%). Average odds at publication: 1.24.

We published 3 picks for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.