Angers vs Marseille prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK

Angers

14:00

1d 0h

Marseille

Our picks

Double chance
Angers or Marseille to Win
Model 76% · Bookmakers 74.3%
Odds1.2775%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Angers25%

Draw24%

Marseille51%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.16

Angers

1.85

Marseille

Most likely scores

1–111%
1–210%
0–19%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Angers or Marseille to Win" a 76% chance; the bookmaker average is 74%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Angers 1.16, Marseille 1.85; most likely score 1-1 (11%). Average odds at publication: 1.27.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Angers to Win25%29%3.41

Draw24%26%3.90

Marseille to Win51%45%2.22

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Angers or Draw49%55%1.82

Marseille or Draw75%71%1.42

Angers or Marseille to WinMatchIQ pick76%74%1.35

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals93%93%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals7%7%13.87

Over 1.5 Goals78%80%1.26

Under 1.5 Goals22%21%4.88

Over 2.5 Goals58%59%1.70

Under 2.5 Goals42%41%2.44

Over 3.5 Goals35%38%2.61

Under 3.5 Goals65%62%1.62

Over 4.5 Goals16%22%4.58

Under 4.5 Goals84%78%1.28

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes54%62%1.62

Both Teams to Score - No46%39%2.60

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Angers to Score First37%42%2.38

No Goal5%6%16.57

Marseille to Score First59%52%1.93

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Angers Leads at Half-time21%––

Half-time Draw39%––

Marseille Leads at Half-time40%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Angers vs Marseille match analysis

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Angers face Marseille on 18 October 2026 (Ligue 1). The MatchIQ model rates a Angers win at 25%, a draw at 24% and a Marseille win at 51%, which makes Marseille a clear favourite at 51%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 29%, 26% and 45% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.16 for Angers and 1.85 for Marseille, 3.01 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 78%, over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Angers or Marseille to Win" a 76% chance; the bookmaker average is 74%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Angers 1.16, Marseille 1.85; most likely score 1-1 (11%). Average odds at publication: 1.27.

We published 1 pick for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.