Osasuna vs Racing Santander prediction

La Liga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UK

Osasuna

13:00

22:04:00

Racing Santander

Our picks

Total goals
Over 1.5 Goals
Model 82% · Bookmakers 78.1%
Odds1.1879%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Osasuna58%

Draw23%

Racing Santander20%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

2.06

Osasuna

1.25

Racing Santander

Most likely scores

2–110%
1–19%
2–08%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Over 1.5 Goals" a 82% chance; the bookmaker average is 78%, so the model is 4 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Osasuna 2.06, Racing Santander 1.25; most likely score 2-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.18; picks this short do not enter our bankroll.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Osasuna to Win58%47%2.12

Draw23%27%3.77

Racing Santander to Win20%26%3.79

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Osasuna or Draw80%74%1.36

Racing Santander or Draw42%53%1.89

Osasuna or Racing Santander to Win77%74%1.36

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals97%92%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals3%8%12.76

Over 1.5 GoalsMatchIQ pick82%78%1.28

Under 1.5 Goals18%22%4.57

Over 2.5 Goals62%57%1.77

Under 2.5 Goals38%43%2.30

Over 3.5 Goals38%36%2.76

Under 3.5 Goals62%64%1.57

Over 4.5 Goals23%21%4.86

Under 4.5 Goals77%79%1.26

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes62%60%1.68

Both Teams to Score - No38%41%2.47

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Osasuna to Score First60%54%1.85

No Goal4%6%16.20

Racing Santander to Score First36%40%2.51

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Osasuna Leads at Half-time42%––

Half-time Draw37%––

Racing Santander Leads at Half-time21%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 49 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Osasuna vs Racing Santander match analysis

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Osasuna face Racing Santander on 18 October 2026 (La Liga). The MatchIQ model rates a Osasuna win at 58%, a draw at 23% and a Racing Santander win at 20%, which makes Osasuna a clear favourite at 58%. The margin-free average of 49 bookmakers is 47%, 27% and 26% respectively.

Expected goals are 2.06 for Osasuna and 1.25 for Racing Santander, 3.31 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 82%, over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 62%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Over 1.5 Goals" a 82% chance; the bookmaker average is 78%, so the model is 4 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Osasuna 2.06, Racing Santander 1.25; most likely score 2-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.18; picks this short do not enter our bankroll.

We published 1 pick for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.