Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction

Bundesliga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK

Bayer Leverkusen

14:30

1d 0h

SC Freiburg

Our picks

Double chance
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw
Model 77% · Bookmakers 77.6%
Odds1.2177%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Bayer Leverkusen53%

Draw24%

SC Freiburg23%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 45 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.97

Bayer Leverkusen

1.27

SC Freiburg

Most likely scores

1–110%
2–110%
1–08%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Bayer Leverkusen or Draw" a 77% chance; the bookmaker average is 78%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 1.97, SC Freiburg 1.27; most likely score 1-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.21.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Bayer Leverkusen to Win53%55%1.82

Draw24%23%4.44

SC Freiburg to Win23%22%4.46

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Bayer Leverkusen or DrawMatchIQ pick77%78%1.29

SC Freiburg or Draw47%45%2.23

Bayer Leverkusen or SC Freiburg to Win76%78%1.29

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals97%93%1.07

Under 0.5 Goals3%7%14.73

Over 1.5 Goals87%82%1.21

Under 1.5 Goals13%18%5.70

Over 2.5 Goals68%64%1.57

Under 2.5 Goals32%36%2.75

Over 3.5 Goals49%43%2.31

Under 3.5 Goals52%57%1.76

Over 4.5 Goals26%26%3.86

Under 4.5 Goals74%74%1.35

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes66%63%1.60

Both Teams to Score - No34%37%2.68

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Bayer Leverkusen to Score First58%58%1.72

No Goal4%5%18.78

SC Freiburg to Score First38%37%2.74

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Bayer Leverkusen Leads at Half-time40%––

Half-time Draw38%––

SC Freiburg Leads at Half-time22%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 45 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg match analysis

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Bayer Leverkusen face SC Freiburg on 18 October 2026 (Bundesliga). The MatchIQ model rates a Bayer Leverkusen win at 53%, a draw at 24% and a SC Freiburg win at 23%, which makes Bayer Leverkusen a clear favourite at 53%. The margin-free average of 45 bookmakers is 55%, 23% and 22% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.97 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.27 for SC Freiburg, 3.24 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 87%, over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 66%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Bayer Leverkusen or Draw" a 77% chance; the bookmaker average is 78%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 1.97, SC Freiburg 1.27; most likely score 1-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.21.

We published 1 pick for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.