Groningen vs Ajax prediction

Eredivisie · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 15:45 UK

Groningen

15:45

1d 2h

Ajax

Our picks

Double chance
Groningen or Ajax to Win
Model 75% · Bookmakers 77.5%
Odds1.2177%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Groningen36%

Draw25%

Ajax39%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.63

Groningen

1.67

Ajax

Most likely scores

1–110%
1–28%
2–18%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Groningen or Ajax to Win" a 75% chance; the bookmaker average is 78%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Groningen 1.63, Ajax 1.67; most likely score 1-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.21.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Groningen to Win36%25%3.99

Draw25%23%4.44

Ajax to Win39%52%1.91

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Groningen or Draw61%48%2.10

Ajax or Draw64%75%1.33

Groningen or Ajax to WinMatchIQ pick75%78%1.29

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals97%94%1.07

Under 0.5 Goals3%6%16.25

Over 1.5 Goals89%86%1.17

Under 1.5 Goals11%14%6.94

Over 2.5 Goals66%69%1.45

Under 2.5 Goals34%31%3.22

Over 3.5 Goals45%50%2.02

Under 3.5 Goals55%51%1.98

Over 4.5 Goals24%31%3.20

Under 4.5 Goals76%69%1.46

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes66%68%1.48

Both Teams to Score - No34%32%3.08

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Groningen to Score First48%40%2.52

No Goal4%4%28.68

Ajax to Score First49%57%1.76

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Groningen Leads at Half-time31%––

Half-time Draw38%––

Ajax Leads at Half-time32%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Groningen vs Ajax match analysis

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Groningen face Ajax on 18 October 2026 (Eredivisie). The MatchIQ model rates a Groningen win at 36%, a draw at 25% and a Ajax win at 39%, which makes Ajax only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 39%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 25%, 23% and 52% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.63 for Groningen and 1.67 for Ajax, 3.30 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 89%, over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 66%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Groningen or Ajax to Win" a 75% chance; the bookmaker average is 78%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Groningen 1.63, Ajax 1.67; most likely score 1-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.21.

We published 1 pick for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.