Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück prediction

2. Bundesliga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK

Arminia Bielefeld

12:30

22:47:00

VfL Osnabrück

Our picks

Total goals
Over 1.5 Goals
Model 83% · Bookmakers 79.9%
Odds1.1781%
Double chance
Arminia Bielefeld or Draw
Model 80% · Bookmakers 77.6%
Odds1.2078%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Arminia Bielefeld55%

Draw25%

VfL Osnabrück20%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.95

Arminia Bielefeld

1.17

VfL Osnabrück

Most likely scores

1–110%
2–110%
1–09%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Arminia Bielefeld or Draw" a 80% chance; the bookmaker average is 78%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Arminia Bielefeld 1.95, VfL Osnabrück 1.17; most likely score 1-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.20.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Arminia Bielefeld to Win55%54%1.86

Draw25%24%4.20

VfL Osnabrück to Win20%22%4.47

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Arminia Bielefeld or DrawMatchIQ pick80%78%1.29

VfL Osnabrück or Draw45%46%2.17

Arminia Bielefeld or VfL Osnabrück to Win75%76%1.31

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals96%92%1.09

Under 0.5 Goals4%9%11.78

Over 1.5 GoalsMatchIQ pick83%80%1.25

Under 1.5 Goals17%20%4.96

Over 2.5 Goals63%60%1.67

Under 2.5 Goals38%40%2.50

Over 3.5 Goals38%40%2.51

Under 3.5 Goals62%60%1.66

Over 4.5 Goals20%23%4.28

Under 4.5 Goals80%77%1.30

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes64%60%1.67

Both Teams to Score - No37%40%2.50

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Arminia Bielefeld to Score First60%58%1.73

No Goal4%6%16.34

VfL Osnabrück to Score First36%36%2.78

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Arminia Bielefeld Leads at Half-time41%––

Half-time Draw38%––

VfL Osnabrück Leads at Half-time21%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück match analysis

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Arminia Bielefeld face VfL Osnabrück on 18 October 2026 (2. Bundesliga). The MatchIQ model rates a Arminia Bielefeld win at 55%, a draw at 25% and a VfL Osnabrück win at 20%, which makes Arminia Bielefeld a clear favourite at 55%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 54%, 24% and 22% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.95 for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.17 for VfL Osnabrück, 3.12 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 83%, over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Arminia Bielefeld or Draw" a 80% chance; the bookmaker average is 78%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Arminia Bielefeld 1.95, VfL Osnabrück 1.17; most likely score 1-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.20.

We published 2 picks for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.