Udinese vs Lecce prediction

Serie A · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UK

Udinese

11:30

22:25:00

Lecce

Our picks

Double chance
Udinese or Draw
Model 77% · Bookmakers 77.4%
Odds1.2277%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Udinese53%

Draw24%

Lecce23%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.73

Udinese

0.98

Lecce

Most likely scores

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Udinese or Draw" a 77% chance; the bookmaker average is 77%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Udinese 1.73, Lecce 0.98; most likely score 1-0 (12%). Average odds at publication: 1.22.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Udinese to Win53%50%1.98

Draw24%27%3.70

Lecce to Win23%23%4.43

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Udinese or DrawMatchIQ pick77%77%1.29

Lecce or Draw47%50%2.02

Udinese or Lecce to Win76%73%1.37

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals93%89%1.12

Under 0.5 Goals7%11%9.43

Over 1.5 Goals74%71%1.40

Under 1.5 Goals26%29%3.49

Over 2.5 Goals52%47%2.12

Under 2.5 Goals48%53%1.90

Over 3.5 Goals26%27%3.67

Under 3.5 Goals74%73%1.37

Over 4.5 Goals14%14%7.13

Under 4.5 Goals86%86%1.16

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes48%51%1.97

Both Teams to Score - No52%49%2.03

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Udinese to Score First60%56%1.79

No Goal7%9%10.69

Lecce to Score First34%35%2.87

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Udinese Leads at Half-time40%––

Half-time Draw42%––

Lecce Leads at Half-time19%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Udinese vs Lecce match analysis

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Udinese face Lecce on 18 October 2026 (Serie A). The MatchIQ model rates a Udinese win at 53%, a draw at 24% and a Lecce win at 23%, which makes Udinese a clear favourite at 53%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 50%, 27% and 23% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.73 for Udinese and 0.98 for Lecce, 2.71 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 74%, over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Udinese or Draw" a 77% chance; the bookmaker average is 77%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Udinese 1.73, Lecce 0.98; most likely score 1-0 (12%). Average odds at publication: 1.22.

We published 1 pick for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.