Celta de Vigo vs Alavés prediction

La Liga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK

Celta de Vigo

15:15

1d 0h

Alavés

Our picks

Double chance
Celta de Vigo or Draw
Model 82% · Bookmakers 73.5%
Odds1.3176%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Celta de Vigo55%

Draw27%

Alavés18%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.48

Celta de Vigo

0.84

Alavés

Most likely scores

1–014%
1–112%
2–011%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Celta de Vigo or Draw" a 82% chance; the bookmaker average is 74%, so the model is 9 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Celta de Vigo 1.48, Alavés 0.84; most likely score 1-0 (14%). Average odds at publication: 1.31.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Celta de Vigo to Win55%45%2.24

Draw27%29%3.45

Alavés to Win18%27%3.78

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Celta de Vigo or DrawMatchIQ pick82%74%1.36

Alavés or Draw45%55%1.80

Celta de Vigo or Alavés to Win73%71%1.41

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%89%1.13

Under 0.5 Goals6%12%8.67

Over 1.5 Goals75%68%1.48

Under 1.5 Goals25%32%3.09

Over 2.5 Goals51%43%2.34

Under 2.5 Goals49%57%1.74

Over 3.5 Goals26%23%4.31

Under 3.5 Goals74%77%1.30

Over 4.5 Goals14%12%8.73

Under 4.5 Goals86%89%1.13

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes58%48%2.07

Both Teams to Score - No42%52%1.94

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Celta de Vigo to Score First58%52%1.94

No Goal10%11%8.96

Alavés to Score First33%37%2.69

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Celta de Vigo Leads at Half-time36%––

Half-time Draw46%––

Alavés Leads at Half-time18%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 49 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Celta de Vigo vs Alavés match analysis

Download image

Celta de Vigo face Alavés on 18 October 2026 (La Liga). The MatchIQ model rates a Celta de Vigo win at 55%, a draw at 27% and a Alavés win at 18%, which makes Celta de Vigo a clear favourite at 55%. The margin-free average of 49 bookmakers is 45%, 29% and 27% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.48 for Celta de Vigo and 0.84 for Alavés, 2.32 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 75%, over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Celta de Vigo or Draw" a 82% chance; the bookmaker average is 74%, so the model is 9 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Celta de Vigo 1.48, Alavés 0.84; most likely score 1-0 (14%). Average odds at publication: 1.31.

We published 1 pick for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.