Bahia vs Flamengo odds & probabilities

Brasileirao · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UK

Bahia

22:30

1d 8h

Flamengo

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Bahia35%

Draw26%

Flamengo39%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.12

Bahia

1.46

Flamengo

Most likely scores

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Bahia to Win35%29%3.47

Draw26%25%3.93

Flamengo to Win39%46%2.19

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Bahia or Draw61%54%1.84

Flamengo or Draw65%71%1.40

Bahia or Flamengo to Win74%75%1.34

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%92%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals6%8%12.76

Over 1.5 Goals76%79%1.27

Under 1.5 Goals24%21%4.67

Over 2.5 Goals51%57%1.76

Under 2.5 Goals49%43%2.31

Over 3.5 Goals27%37%2.74

Under 3.5 Goals73%64%1.58

Over 4.5 Goals13%21%4.85

Under 4.5 Goals87%79%1.26

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes55%60%1.67

Both Teams to Score - No45%40%2.48

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Bahia to Score First40%41%2.42

No Goal8%6%16.49

Flamengo to Score First52%53%1.90

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Bahia Leads at Half-time24%––

Half-time Draw44%––

Flamengo Leads at Half-time33%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Bahia vs Flamengo match analysis

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Bahia face Flamengo on 18 October 2026 (Brasileirao). The MatchIQ model rates a Bahia win at 35%, a draw at 26% and a Flamengo win at 39%, which makes Flamengo only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 39%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 29%, 25% and 46% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.12 for Bahia and 1.46 for Flamengo, 2.58 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 76%, over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.