Bournemouth vs Sunderland odds & probabilities

Premier League · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK

Bournemouth

14:00

1d 0h

Sunderland

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Bournemouth46%

Draw31%

Sunderland23%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.77

Bournemouth

1.18

Sunderland

Most likely scores

1–111%
2–110%
1–09%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Bournemouth to Win46%46%2.17

Draw31%27%3.72

Sunderland to Win23%27%3.71

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Bournemouth or Draw77%73%1.37

Sunderland or Draw54%54%1.86

Bournemouth or Sunderland to Win69%73%1.37

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%91%1.10

Under 0.5 Goals6%10%10.52

Over 1.5 Goals80%75%1.33

Under 1.5 Goals20%25%4.07

Over 2.5 Goals58%53%1.90

Under 2.5 Goals42%47%2.11

Over 3.5 Goals34%32%3.13

Under 3.5 Goals66%68%1.47

Over 4.5 Goals16%17%5.89

Under 4.5 Goals84%83%1.20

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes59%56%1.78

Both Teams to Score - No41%44%2.28

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Bournemouth to Score First57%53%1.89

No Goal5%8%12.25

Sunderland to Score First38%39%2.56

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Bournemouth Leads at Half-time38%––

Half-time Draw40%––

Sunderland Leads at Half-time22%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland match analysis

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Bournemouth face Sunderland on 18 October 2026 (Premier League). The MatchIQ model rates a Bournemouth win at 46%, a draw at 31% and a Sunderland win at 23%, which makes Bournemouth a clear favourite at 46%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 46%, 27% and 27% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.77 for Bournemouth and 1.18 for Sunderland, 2.95 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 80%, over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.