Brighton vs Crystal Palace odds & probabilities

Premier League · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK

Brighton

14:00

23:04:00

Crystal Palace

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Brighton52%

Draw29%

Crystal Palace19%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

2.02

Brighton

1.11

Crystal Palace

Most likely scores

2–110%
1–110%
2–09%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Brighton to Win52%61%1.64

Draw29%21%4.67

Crystal Palace to Win19%18%5.66

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Brighton or Draw81%82%1.21

Crystal Palace or Draw48%39%2.56

Brighton or Crystal Palace to Win71%79%1.27

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%93%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals6%7%14.28

Over 1.5 Goals81%80%1.24

Under 1.5 Goals19%20%5.09

Over 2.5 Goals60%60%1.65

Under 2.5 Goals40%40%2.53

Over 3.5 Goals36%40%2.52

Under 3.5 Goals64%60%1.66

Over 4.5 Goals17%23%4.35

Under 4.5 Goals83%77%1.30

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes59%57%1.76

Both Teams to Score - No41%43%2.32

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Brighton to Score First62%63%1.59

No Goal4%6%17.94

Crystal Palace to Score First34%32%3.17

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Brighton Leads at Half-time43%––

Half-time Draw38%––

Crystal Palace Leads at Half-time19%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace match analysis

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Brighton face Crystal Palace on 18 October 2026 (Premier League). The MatchIQ model rates a Brighton win at 52%, a draw at 29% and a Crystal Palace win at 19%, which makes Brighton a clear favourite at 52%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 61%, 21% and 18% respectively.

Expected goals are 2.02 for Brighton and 1.11 for Crystal Palace, 3.13 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 81%, over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.