Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar odds & probabilities

Eredivisie · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 13:30 UK

Cambuur

13:30

23:07:00

AZ Alkmaar

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Cambuur20%

Draw23%

AZ Alkmaar56%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.15

Cambuur

2.09

AZ Alkmaar

Most likely scores

1–210%
1–19%
0–29%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Cambuur to Win20%16%6.19

Draw23%19%5.22

AZ Alkmaar to Win57%65%1.55

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Cambuur or Draw44%35%2.83

AZ Alkmaar or Draw80%84%1.19

Cambuur or AZ Alkmaar to Win77%81%1.24

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals97%94%1.07

Under 0.5 Goals3%6%16.36

Over 1.5 Goals89%86%1.17

Under 1.5 Goals11%14%6.95

Over 2.5 Goals66%69%1.45

Under 2.5 Goals34%31%3.24

Over 3.5 Goals45%50%2.02

Under 3.5 Goals55%51%1.98

Over 4.5 Goals24%31%3.18

Under 4.5 Goals76%69%1.46

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes64%62%1.60

Both Teams to Score - No36%38%2.66

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Cambuur to Score First34%32%3.14

No Goal4%4%25.65

AZ Alkmaar to Score First62%64%1.56

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Cambuur Leads at Half-time19%––

Half-time Draw37%––

AZ Alkmaar Leads at Half-time44%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar match analysis

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Cambuur face AZ Alkmaar on 18 October 2026 (Eredivisie). The MatchIQ model rates a Cambuur win at 20%, a draw at 23% and a AZ Alkmaar win at 56%, which makes AZ Alkmaar a clear favourite at 56%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 16%, 19% and 65% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.15 for Cambuur and 2.09 for AZ Alkmaar, 3.24 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 89%, over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 64%. Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.