Fiorentina vs Como odds & probabilities

Serie A · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK

Fiorentina

14:00

23:37:00

Como

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Fiorentina20%

Draw23%

Como57%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

0.94

Fiorentina

1.78

Como

Most likely scores

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Fiorentina to Win20%28%3.52

Draw23%26%3.83

Como to Win57%45%2.20

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Fiorentina or Draw43%55%1.83

Como or Draw80%72%1.40

Fiorentina or Como to Win77%74%1.35

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals93%93%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals7%8%13.25

Over 1.5 Goals74%78%1.28

Under 1.5 Goals26%22%4.63

Over 2.5 Goals52%57%1.75

Under 2.5 Goals48%43%2.33

Over 3.5 Goals26%37%2.74

Under 3.5 Goals74%64%1.58

Over 4.5 Goals14%21%4.88

Under 4.5 Goals86%80%1.26

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes48%60%1.67

Both Teams to Score - No52%40%2.50

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Fiorentina to Score First32%41%2.46

No Goal7%6%16.22

Como to Score First61%53%1.88

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Fiorentina Leads at Half-time18%––

Half-time Draw41%––

Como Leads at Half-time41%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Fiorentina vs Como match analysis

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Fiorentina face Como on 18 October 2026 (Serie A). The MatchIQ model rates a Fiorentina win at 20%, a draw at 23% and a Como win at 57%, which makes Como a clear favourite at 57%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 28%, 26% and 45% respectively.

Expected goals are 0.94 for Fiorentina and 1.78 for Como, 2.72 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 74%, over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.