Fluminense vs Santos odds & probabilities

Brasileirao · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK

Fluminense

20:00

1d 6h

Santos

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Fluminense49%

Draw25%

Santos26%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 25 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.46

Fluminense

1.18

Santos

Most likely scores

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Fluminense to Win49%46%2.19

Draw25%27%3.72

Santos to Win26%28%3.64

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Fluminense or Draw74%73%1.38

Santos or Draw51%54%1.84

Fluminense or Santos to Win75%73%1.37

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%91%1.10

Under 0.5 Goals6%9%10.62

Over 1.5 Goals76%74%1.36

Under 1.5 Goals24%26%3.80

Over 2.5 Goals52%50%1.99

Under 2.5 Goals48%50%2.01

Over 3.5 Goals27%30%3.33

Under 3.5 Goals73%70%1.43

Over 4.5 Goals13%16%6.41

Under 4.5 Goals87%84%1.19

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes55%54%1.85

Both Teams to Score - No45%46%2.18

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Fluminense to Score First51%52%1.93

No Goal7%9%11.13

Santos to Score First41%39%2.56

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Fluminense Leads at Half-time32%––

Half-time Draw43%––

Santos Leads at Half-time25%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 25 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Fluminense vs Santos match analysis

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Fluminense face Santos on 18 October 2026 (Brasileirao). The MatchIQ model rates a Fluminense win at 49%, a draw at 25% and a Santos win at 26%, which makes Fluminense a clear favourite at 49%. The margin-free average of 25 bookmakers is 46%, 27% and 28% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.46 for Fluminense and 1.18 for Santos, 2.64 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 76%, over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.