Gremio vs Cruzeiro odds & probabilities

Brasileirao · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK

Gremio

20:00

1d 5h

Cruzeiro

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Gremio46%

Draw25%

Cruzeiro28%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.41

Gremio

1.26

Cruzeiro

Most likely scores

1–112%
1–010%
0–19%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Gremio to Win46%32%3.12

Draw25%27%3.69

Cruzeiro to Win29%41%2.45

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Gremio or Draw72%59%1.69

Cruzeiro or Draw54%68%1.47

Gremio or Cruzeiro to Win75%73%1.37

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%90%1.11

Under 0.5 Goals6%10%10.22

Over 1.5 Goals77%75%1.34

Under 1.5 Goals23%25%3.96

Over 2.5 Goals52%52%1.93

Under 2.5 Goals48%48%2.08

Over 3.5 Goals28%31%3.18

Under 3.5 Goals72%69%1.46

Over 4.5 Goals13%17%5.91

Under 4.5 Goals87%83%1.20

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes55%57%1.77

Both Teams to Score - No45%43%2.30

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Gremio to Score First49%43%2.33

No Goal7%8%13.22

Cruzeiro to Score First44%50%2.02

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Gremio Leads at Half-time31%––

Half-time Draw43%––

Cruzeiro Leads at Half-time27%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Gremio vs Cruzeiro match analysis

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Gremio face Cruzeiro on 18 October 2026 (Brasileirao). The MatchIQ model rates a Gremio win at 46%, a draw at 25% and a Cruzeiro win at 28%, which makes Gremio the favourite at 46%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 32%, 27% and 41% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.41 for Gremio and 1.26 for Cruzeiro, 2.67 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 77%, over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.