Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor odds & probabilities

Super Lig · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UK

Kasımpaşa

11:30

22:24:00

Samsunspor

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Kasımpaşa34%

Draw35%

Samsunspor31%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.07

Kasımpaşa

1.17

Samsunspor

Most likely scores

1–113%
0–113%
1–011%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Kasımpaşa to Win34%38%2.66

Draw35%28%3.61

Samsunspor to Win31%35%2.88

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Kasımpaşa or Draw69%65%1.53

Samsunspor or Draw66%63%1.60

Kasımpaşa or Samsunspor to Win65%72%1.38

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals91%89%1.12

Under 0.5 Goals10%11%9.42

Over 1.5 Goals73%71%1.41

Under 1.5 Goals27%29%3.46

Over 2.5 Goals50%48%2.09

Under 2.5 Goals50%52%1.92

Over 3.5 Goals24%28%3.60

Under 3.5 Goals76%72%1.38

Over 4.5 Goals11%15%6.83

Under 4.5 Goals89%85%1.17

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes52%54%1.87

Both Teams to Score - No48%46%2.15

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Kasımpaşa to Score First43%47%2.15

No Goal11%9%10.73

Samsunspor to Score First47%44%2.26

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Kasımpaşa Leads at Half-time25%––

Half-time Draw47%––

Samsunspor Leads at Half-time28%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor match analysis

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Kasımpaşa face Samsunspor on 18 October 2026 (Super Lig). The MatchIQ model rates a Kasımpaşa win at 34%, a draw at 35% and a Samsunspor win at 31%, which makes Kasımpaşa only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 34%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 38%, 28% and 35% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.07 for Kasımpaşa and 1.17 for Samsunspor, 2.24 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 73%, over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.