Lorient vs Monaco odds & probabilities

Ligue 1 · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK

Lorient

16:15

1d 3h

Monaco

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Lorient28%

Draw26%

Monaco46%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.12

Lorient

1.57

Monaco

Most likely scores

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Lorient to Win29%26%3.82

Draw26%28%3.62

Monaco to Win46%46%2.16

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Lorient or Draw55%54%1.86

Monaco or Draw72%74%1.35

Lorient or Monaco to Win74%72%1.38

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals92%90%1.11

Under 0.5 Goals8%10%10.42

Over 1.5 Goals76%73%1.37

Under 1.5 Goals24%27%3.72

Over 2.5 Goals55%49%2.03

Under 2.5 Goals45%51%1.97

Over 3.5 Goals32%29%3.43

Under 3.5 Goals68%71%1.41

Over 4.5 Goals14%15%6.66

Under 4.5 Goals86%85%1.18

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes53%54%1.85

Both Teams to Score - No47%46%2.17

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Lorient to Score First39%38%2.63

No Goal7%9%11.10

Monaco to Score First54%53%1.89

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Lorient Leads at Half-time23%––

Half-time Draw42%––

Monaco Leads at Half-time35%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Lorient vs Monaco match analysis

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Lorient face Monaco on 18 October 2026 (Ligue 1). The MatchIQ model rates a Lorient win at 28%, a draw at 26% and a Monaco win at 46%, which makes Monaco the favourite at 46%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 26%, 28% and 46% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.12 for Lorient and 1.57 for Monaco, 2.69 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 76%, over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.