Lyon vs Nice prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK

Lyon

19:45

1d 6h

Nice

Our picks

Double chance
Lyon or Nice to Win
Model 76% · Bookmakers 76.6%
Odds1.2376%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Lyon52%

Draw24%

Nice25%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 45 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.93

Lyon

1.29

Nice

Most likely scores

1–110%
2–110%
1–08%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Lyon or Nice to Win" a 76% chance; the bookmaker average is 77%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Lyon 1.93, Nice 1.29; most likely score 1-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.23.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Lyon to Win52%56%1.78

Draw24%23%4.28

Nice to Win25%20%4.92

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Lyon or Draw76%80%1.25

Nice or Draw48%44%2.29

Lyon or Nice to WinMatchIQ pick76%77%1.30

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%93%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals6%8%13.38

Over 1.5 Goals80%79%1.27

Under 1.5 Goals21%22%4.65

Over 2.5 Goals61%57%1.75

Under 2.5 Goals39%43%2.34

Over 3.5 Goals38%36%2.76

Under 3.5 Goals62%64%1.57

Over 4.5 Goals17%21%4.88

Under 4.5 Goals83%80%1.26

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes56%56%1.77

Both Teams to Score - No45%44%2.30

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Lyon to Score First58%60%1.67

No Goal4%7%14.48

Nice to Score First38%33%3.01

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Lyon Leads at Half-time40%––

Half-time Draw38%––

Nice Leads at Half-time23%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 45 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Lyon vs Nice match analysis

Download image

Lyon face Nice on 18 October 2026 (Ligue 1). The MatchIQ model rates a Lyon win at 52%, a draw at 24% and a Nice win at 25%, which makes Lyon a clear favourite at 52%. The margin-free average of 45 bookmakers is 56%, 23% and 20% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.93 for Lyon and 1.29 for Nice, 3.22 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 80%, over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Lyon or Nice to Win" a 76% chance; the bookmaker average is 77%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Lyon 1.93, Nice 1.29; most likely score 1-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.23.

We published 1 pick for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.