Malaga vs Real Sociedad odds & probabilities

La Liga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK

Malaga

17:30

1d 3h

Real Sociedad

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Malaga37%

Draw27%

Real Sociedad36%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.18

Malaga

1.34

Real Sociedad

Most likely scores

1–113%
0–111%
1–010%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Malaga to Win37%29%3.40

Draw27%27%3.68

Real Sociedad to Win36%43%2.30

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Malaga or Draw64%57%1.77

Real Sociedad or Draw63%71%1.42

Malaga or Real Sociedad to Win73%73%1.37

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals95%91%1.10

Under 0.5 Goals5%9%11.48

Over 1.5 Goals77%76%1.32

Under 1.5 Goals23%24%4.10

Over 2.5 Goals53%53%1.88

Under 2.5 Goals47%47%2.14

Over 3.5 Goals28%33%3.07

Under 3.5 Goals72%67%1.48

Over 4.5 Goals16%18%5.73

Under 4.5 Goals84%83%1.21

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes59%57%1.74

Both Teams to Score - No41%43%2.34

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Malaga to Score First43%41%2.45

No Goal8%7%13.42

Real Sociedad to Score First49%52%1.94

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Malaga Leads at Half-time26%––

Half-time Draw44%––

Real Sociedad Leads at Half-time30%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 49 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Malaga vs Real Sociedad match analysis

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Malaga face Real Sociedad on 18 October 2026 (La Liga). The MatchIQ model rates a Malaga win at 37%, a draw at 27% and a Real Sociedad win at 36%, which makes Malaga only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 37%. The margin-free average of 49 bookmakers is 29%, 27% and 43% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.18 for Malaga and 1.34 for Real Sociedad, 2.52 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 77%, over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.