NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard odds & probabilities

Eredivisie · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK

NEC Nijmegen

19:00

1d 5h

Fortuna Sittard

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

NEC Nijmegen60%

Draw23%

Fortuna Sittard18%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 47 bookmakers.

Expected goals

2.35

NEC Nijmegen

1.18

Fortuna Sittard

Most likely scores

2–110%
1–18%
2–08%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

NEC Nijmegen to Win60%59%1.68

Draw23%21%4.66

Fortuna Sittard to Win18%19%5.21

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

NEC Nijmegen or Draw82%81%1.24

Fortuna Sittard or Draw40%41%2.46

NEC Nijmegen or Fortuna Sittard to Win78%79%1.27

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals97%94%1.06

Under 0.5 Goals3%6%16.84

Over 1.5 Goals90%85%1.18

Under 1.5 Goals10%15%6.71

Over 2.5 Goals68%68%1.47

Under 2.5 Goals32%32%3.13

Over 3.5 Goals48%49%2.04

Under 3.5 Goals52%51%1.96

Over 4.5 Goals26%31%3.24

Under 4.5 Goals74%69%1.45

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes65%65%1.55

Both Teams to Score - No35%35%2.83

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

NEC Nijmegen to Score First65%61%1.64

No Goal3%5%21.22

Fortuna Sittard to Score First33%34%2.91

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

NEC Nijmegen Leads at Half-time47%––

Half-time Draw35%––

Fortuna Sittard Leads at Half-time18%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 47 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard match analysis

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NEC Nijmegen face Fortuna Sittard on 18 October 2026 (Eredivisie). The MatchIQ model rates a NEC Nijmegen win at 60%, a draw at 23% and a Fortuna Sittard win at 18%, which makes NEC Nijmegen a clear favourite at 60%. The margin-free average of 47 bookmakers is 59%, 21% and 19% respectively.

Expected goals are 2.35 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.18 for Fortuna Sittard, 3.53 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 90%, over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 65%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.