Sampdoria vs Arezzo prediction

Serie B · Sun, 18 Oct 2026 · 18:30 UK

Sampdoria

18:30

1d 5h

Arezzo

Our picks

Double chance
Sampdoria or Draw
Model 84% · Bookmakers 78%
Odds1.1979%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Sampdoria58%

Draw26%

Arezzo16%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 45 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.76

Sampdoria

0.93

Arezzo

Most likely scores

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Sampdoria or Draw" a 84% chance; the bookmaker average is 78%, so the model is 6 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Sampdoria 1.76, Arezzo 0.93; most likely score 1-0 (12%). Average odds at publication: 1.19; picks this short do not enter our bankroll.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Sampdoria to Win58%51%1.94

Draw26%27%3.77

Arezzo to Win16%22%4.54

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Sampdoria or DrawMatchIQ pick84%78%1.28

Arezzo or Draw42%49%2.06

Sampdoria or Arezzo to Win74%74%1.36

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals93%89%1.13

Under 0.5 Goals7%11%8.77

Over 1.5 Goals78%71%1.41

Under 1.5 Goals22%29%3.43

Over 2.5 Goals53%47%2.11

Under 2.5 Goals47%53%1.90

Over 3.5 Goals28%28%3.60

Under 3.5 Goals72%72%1.38

Over 4.5 Goals11%15%6.90

Under 4.5 Goals89%86%1.17

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes52%50%2.00

Both Teams to Score - No48%50%2.00

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Sampdoria to Score First61%56%1.78

No Goal7%10%10.56

Arezzo to Score First32%34%2.91

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Sampdoria Leads at Half-time41%––

Half-time Draw42%––

Arezzo Leads at Half-time18%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 45 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Sampdoria vs Arezzo match analysis

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Sampdoria face Arezzo on 18 October 2026 (Serie B). The MatchIQ model rates a Sampdoria win at 58%, a draw at 26% and a Arezzo win at 16%, which makes Sampdoria a clear favourite at 58%. The margin-free average of 45 bookmakers is 51%, 27% and 22% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.76 for Sampdoria and 0.93 for Arezzo, 2.69 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 78%, over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%).

Featured pick: The model gives "Sampdoria or Draw" a 84% chance; the bookmaker average is 78%, so the model is 6 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Sampdoria 1.76, Arezzo 0.93; most likely score 1-0 (12%). Average odds at publication: 1.19; picks this short do not enter our bankroll.

We published 1 pick for this match; each is recorded at the odds available when it went out and settles automatically at full time. Confidence blends our model's probability with the market's; it is not a guarantee. Every past result, losses included, is on the Results page.