AS Roma vs Genoa odds & probabilities

Serie A · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK

AS Roma

19:45

06:05:00

Genoa

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

AS Roma66%

Draw22%

Genoa13%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.94

AS Roma

0.65

Genoa

Most likely scores

1–014%
2–014%
1–110%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

AS Roma to Win66%66%1.51

Draw22%20%4.92

Genoa to Win13%13%7.47

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

AS Roma or Draw87%87%1.15

Genoa or Draw35%34%2.97

AS Roma or Genoa to Win78%80%1.26

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals92%92%1.09

Under 0.5 Goals8%8%12.54

Over 1.5 Goals73%78%1.29

Under 1.5 Goals27%23%4.44

Over 2.5 Goals51%56%1.79

Under 2.5 Goals49%44%2.27

Over 3.5 Goals25%35%2.88

Under 3.5 Goals75%65%1.53

Over 4.5 Goals13%19%5.21

Under 4.5 Goals87%81%1.24

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes46%49%2.05

Both Teams to Score - No54%51%1.96

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

AS Roma to Score First69%66%1.52

No Goal7%7%13.50

Genoa to Score First23%27%3.74

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

AS Roma Leads at Half-time47%––

Half-time Draw41%––

Genoa Leads at Half-time12%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

AS Roma vs Genoa match analysis

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AS Roma face Genoa on 17 October 2026 (Serie A). The MatchIQ model rates a AS Roma win at 66%, a draw at 22% and a Genoa win at 13%, which makes AS Roma a clear favourite at 66%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 66%, 20% and 13% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.94 for AS Roma and 0.65 for Genoa, 2.59 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 73%, over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 46%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.