Benevento vs Vicenza Virtus prediction

Serie B · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK

Benevento
14:00
1d 5h
Vicenza Virtus

Our picks

  • Double chance
    Benevento or Draw
    Model 89% · Bookmakers 73.5%
    Odds1.2677%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Benevento66%
Draw23%
Vicenza Virtus11%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 45 bookmakers.

Expected goals

2.14
Benevento
xG
0.84
Vicenza Virtus

Most likely scores

  1. 2–012%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–110%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Benevento or Draw" a 89% chance; the bookmaker average is 74%, so the model is 16 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Benevento 2.14, Vicenza Virtus 0.84; most likely score 2-0 (12%). Average odds at publication: 1.26.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds
Benevento to Win66%47%2.14
Draw23%27%3.72
Vicenza Virtus to Win11%27%3.78
Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds
Benevento or DrawMatchIQ pick90%74%1.36
Vicenza Virtus or Draw34%53%1.87
Benevento or Vicenza Virtus to Win77%73%1.37
Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds
Over 0.5 Goals94%90%1.11
Under 0.5 Goals6%10%10.42
Over 1.5 Goals80%76%1.32
Under 1.5 Goals20%24%4.10
Over 2.5 Goals56%53%1.89
Under 2.5 Goals44%47%2.13
Over 3.5 Goals31%33%3.04
Under 3.5 Goals69%67%1.49
Over 4.5 Goals13%18%5.64
Under 4.5 Goals87%82%1.22
Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds
Both Teams to Score - Yes52%56%1.78
Both Teams to Score - No48%44%2.29
First goalModelMarket≈Odds
Benevento to Score First68%53%1.88
No Goal5%8%12.41
Vicenza Virtus to Score First27%39%2.57
Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds
Benevento Leads at Half-time48%––
Half-time Draw38%––
Vicenza Virtus Leads at Half-time14%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 45 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

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