FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK

FC Schalke 04

14:30

1d 5h

FSV Mainz 05

Our picks

Total goals
Over 1.5 Goals
Model 86% · Bookmakers 79.4%
Odds1.1981%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

FC Schalke 0434%

Draw26%

FSV Mainz 0541%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.40

FC Schalke 04

1.67

FSV Mainz 05

Most likely scores

1–111%
1–29%
0–18%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Over 1.5 Goals" a 86% chance; the bookmaker average is 79%, so the model is 7 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: FC Schalke 04 1.40, FSV Mainz 05 1.67; most likely score 1-1 (11%). Average odds at publication: 1.19; picks this short do not enter our bankroll.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

FC Schalke 04 to Win34%32%3.17

Draw26%26%3.80

FSV Mainz 05 to Win41%42%2.37

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

FC Schalke 04 or Draw60%58%1.73

FSV Mainz 05 or Draw66%69%1.46

FC Schalke 04 or FSV Mainz 05 to Win75%74%1.36

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals97%93%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals3%7%13.81

Over 1.5 GoalsMatchIQ pick86%79%1.26