Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK

Werder Bremen
14:30
1d 5h
SC Paderborn 07

Our picks

  • Double chance
    Werder Bremen or Draw
    Model 84% · Bookmakers 76.5%
    Odds1.2378%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Werder Bremen57%
Draw27%
SC Paderborn 0716%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.58
Werder Bremen
xG
0.74
SC Paderborn 07

Most likely scores

  1. 1–015%
  2. 2–012%
  3. 1–112%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Werder Bremen or Draw" a 84% chance; the bookmaker average is 77%, so the model is 8 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.58, SC Paderborn 07 0.74; most likely score 1-0 (15%). Average odds at publication: 1.23.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds
Werder Bremen to Win57%53%1.88
Draw27%24%4.26
SC Paderborn 07 to Win16%24%4.26
Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds
Werder Bremen or DrawMatchIQ pick84%77%1.31
SC Paderborn 07 or Draw43%47%2.13
Werder Bremen or SC Paderborn 07 to Win73%77%1.31
Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds
Over 0.5 Goals95%93%1.08
Under 0.5 Goals5%7%13.62
Over 1.5 Goals82%81%1.23
Under 1.5 Goals18%19%5.32
Over 2.5 Goals58%61%1.63
Under 2.5 Goals42%39%2.59
Over 3.5 Goals36%41%2.45
Under 3.5 Goals64%59%1.69
Over 4.5 Goals17%24%4.17
Under 4.5 Goals83%76%1.32
Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds
Both Teams to Score - Yes62%62%1.62
Both Teams to Score - No39%38%2.60
First goalModelMarket≈Odds
Werder Bremen to Score First61%58%1.73
No Goal10%5%20.09
SC Paderborn 07 to Score First29%37%2.68
Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds
Werder Bremen Leads at Half-time40%––
Half-time Draw45%––
SC Paderborn 07 Leads at Half-time15%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 49 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

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