Venezia vs Napoli prediction

Serie A · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK

Venezia

14:00

1d 5h

Napoli

Our picks

Double chance
Napoli or Draw
Model 85% · Bookmakers 79.4%
Odds1.1981%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Venezia15%

Draw19%

Napoli66%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

0.97

Venezia

2.34

Napoli

Most likely scores

0–210%
1–210%
0–19%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Napoli or Draw" a 85% chance; the bookmaker average is 79%, so the model is 6 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: Venezia 0.97, Napoli 2.34; most likely score 0-2 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.19; picks this short do not enter our bankroll.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Venezia to Win15%21%4.86

Draw19%24%4.26

Napoli to Win66%56%1.79

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Venezia or Draw34%44%2.27

Napoli or DrawMatchIQ pick85%79%1.26

Venezia or Napoli to Win81%77%1.31

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals95%93%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals5%7%13.50

Over 1.5 Goals79%78%1.29