Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras odds & probabilities

Brasileirao · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UK

Athletico Paranaense

23:30

10:24:00

Palmeiras

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Athletico Paranaense47%

Draw26%

Palmeiras27%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.33

Athletico Paranaense

1.12

Palmeiras

Most likely scores

1–113%
1–011%
0–110%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Athletico Paranaense to Win47%32%3.16

Draw26%28%3.60

Palmeiras to Win27%41%2.46

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Athletico Paranaense or Draw73%59%1.68

Palmeiras or Draw53%68%1.46

Athletico Paranaense or Palmeiras to Win74%72%1.38

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals93%90%1.12

Under 0.5 Goals7%11%9.48

Over 1.5 Goals75%72%1.39

Under 1.5 Goals25%28%3.58

Over 2.5 Goals50%49%2.06

Under 2.5 Goals51%51%1.95

Over 3.5 Goals25%28%3.53

Under 3.5 Goals75%72%1.39

Over 4.5 Goals12%15%6.91

Under 4.5 Goals88%86%1.17

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes54%54%1.86

Both Teams to Score - No46%46%2.17

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Athletico Paranaense to Score First50%42%2.36

No Goal9%9%11.23

Palmeiras to Score First42%49%2.05

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Athletico Paranaense Leads at Half-time31%––

Half-time Draw45%––

Palmeiras Leads at Half-time25%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Athletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras match analysis

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Athletico Paranaense face Palmeiras on 17 October 2026 (Brasileirao). The MatchIQ model rates a Athletico Paranaense win at 47%, a draw at 26% and a Palmeiras win at 27%, which makes Athletico Paranaense a clear favourite at 47%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 32%, 28% and 41% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.33 for Athletico Paranaense and 1.12 for Palmeiras, 2.45 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 75%, over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.