Atletico-MG vs Coritiba odds & probabilities

Brasileirao · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UK

Atletico-MG

22:30

08:05:00

Coritiba

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

What do you say? Vote

Match result odds

Atletico-MG65%

Draw22%

Coritiba13%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.89

Atletico-MG

0.81

Coritiba

Most likely scores

1–013%
2–012%
1–110%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Atletico-MG to Win65%62%1.62

Draw22%23%4.43

Coritiba to Win13%16%6.36

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Atletico-MG or Draw88%84%1.19

Coritiba or Draw35%38%2.61

Atletico-MG or Coritiba to Win78%77%1.29

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%91%1.10

Under 0.5 Goals6%9%10.91

Over 1.5 Goals77%76%1.32

Under 1.5 Goals23%25%4.08

Over 2.5 Goals53%53%1.88

Under 2.5 Goals48%47%2.14

Over 3.5 Goals28%32%3.11

Under 3.5 Goals72%68%1.47

Over 4.5 Goals14%17%5.78

Under 4.5 Goals87%83%1.21

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes54%50%2.00

Both Teams to Score - No46%50%2.00

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Atletico-MG to Score First65%63%1.60

No Goal7%8%12.19

Coritiba to Score First28%29%3.43

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Atletico-MG Leads at Half-time45%––

Half-time Draw41%––

Coritiba Leads at Half-time15%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Atletico-MG vs Coritiba match analysis

Download image

Atletico-MG face Coritiba on 17 October 2026 (Brasileirao). The MatchIQ model rates a Atletico-MG win at 65%, a draw at 22% and a Coritiba win at 13%, which makes Atletico-MG a clear favourite at 65%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 62%, 23% and 16% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.89 for Atletico-MG and 0.81 for Coritiba, 2.70 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 77%, over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.