Botafogo vs Chapecoense odds & probabilities

Brasileirao · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 22:00 UK

Botafogo

22:00

07:06:00

Chapecoense

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Botafogo67%

Draw21%

Chapecoense12%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

2.03

Botafogo

0.85

Chapecoense

Most likely scores

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Botafogo to Win67%70%1.44

Draw21%18%5.51

Chapecoense to Win12%12%8.11

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Botafogo or Draw88%88%1.14

Chapecoense or Draw33%31%3.28

Botafogo or Chapecoense to Win79%82%1.22

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals95%93%1.07

Under 0.5 Goals5%7%15.06

Over 1.5 Goals78%82%1.23

Under 1.5 Goals22%19%5.40

Over 2.5 Goals54%63%1.59

Under 2.5 Goals46%37%2.69

Over 3.5 Goals30%42%2.37

Under 3.5 Goals70%58%1.73

Over 4.5 Goals15%25%3.96

Under 4.5 Goals85%75%1.34

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes54%54%1.86

Both Teams to Score - No46%46%2.17

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Botafogo to Score First67%68%1.46

No Goal6%5%18.55

Chapecoense to Score First28%26%3.82

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Botafogo Leads at Half-time46%––

Half-time Draw39%––

Chapecoense Leads at Half-time15%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Botafogo vs Chapecoense match analysis

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Botafogo face Chapecoense on 17 October 2026 (Brasileirao). The MatchIQ model rates a Botafogo win at 67%, a draw at 21% and a Chapecoense win at 12%, which makes Botafogo a clear favourite at 67%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 70%, 18% and 12% respectively.

Expected goals are 2.03 for Botafogo and 0.85 for Chapecoense, 2.88 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 78%, over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.