Derby vs Stoke City odds & probabilities

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK

Derby

15:00

00:03:00

Stoke City

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Derby33%

Draw28%

Stoke City39%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.28

Derby

1.43

Stoke City

Most likely scores

1–112%
0–110%
1–29%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Derby to Win33%37%2.72

Draw28%28%3.60

Stoke City to Win39%36%2.82

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Derby or Draw61%65%1.55

Stoke City or Draw68%63%1.58

Derby or Stoke City to Win72%72%1.38

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%90%1.12

Under 0.5 Goals6%10%9.65

Over 1.5 Goals79%73%1.38

Under 1.5 Goals21%27%3.66

Over 2.5 Goals55%50%2.02

Under 2.5 Goals45%51%1.98

Over 3.5 Goals30%29%3.43

Under 3.5 Goals71%71%1.41

Over 4.5 Goals10%15%6.58

Under 4.5 Goals90%85%1.18

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes60%54%1.85

Both Teams to Score - No40%46%2.18

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Derby to Score First44%46%2.18

No Goal7%9%11.32

Stoke City to Score First49%45%2.21

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Derby Leads at Half-time27%––

Half-time Draw43%––

Stoke City Leads at Half-time31%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Derby vs Stoke City match analysis

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Derby face Stoke City on 17 October 2026 (Championship). The MatchIQ model rates a Derby win at 33%, a draw at 28% and a Stoke City win at 39%, which makes Stoke City only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 39%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 37%, 28% and 36% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.28 for Derby and 1.43 for Stoke City, 2.71 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 79%, over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.