Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid odds & probabilities

La Liga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UK

Espanyol

In play

Atlético Madrid

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Espanyol33%

Draw27%

Atlético Madrid40%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.11

Espanyol

1.46

Atlético Madrid

Most likely scores

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Espanyol to Win33%20%4.91

Draw27%25%4.01

Atlético Madrid to Win40%55%1.83

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Espanyol or Draw60%45%2.21

Atlético Madrid or Draw67%80%1.26

Espanyol or Atlético Madrid to Win73%75%1.33

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals95%91%1.09

Under 0.5 Goals5%9%11.63

Over 1.5 Goals77%75%1.33

Under 1.5 Goals23%25%4.04

Over 2.5 Goals54%53%1.90

Under 2.5 Goals46%47%2.11

Over 3.5 Goals29%32%3.13

Under 3.5 Goals71%68%1.47

Over 4.5 Goals17%17%5.82

Under 4.5 Goals83%83%1.21

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes59%54%1.86

Both Teams to Score - No41%46%2.16

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Espanyol to Score First40%33%3.01

No Goal8%8%12.26

Atlético Madrid to Score First53%59%1.71

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Espanyol Leads at Half-time23%––

Half-time Draw44%––

Atlético Madrid Leads at Half-time33%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 49 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid match analysis

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Espanyol face Atlético Madrid on 17 October 2026 (La Liga). The MatchIQ model rates a Espanyol win at 33%, a draw at 27% and a Atlético Madrid win at 40%, which makes Atlético Madrid only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 40%. The margin-free average of 49 bookmakers is 20%, 25% and 55% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.11 for Espanyol and 1.46 for Atlético Madrid, 2.57 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 77%, over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.