Everton vs Chelsea odds & probabilities

Premier League · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK

Everton

Result pending

Chelsea

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Everton33%

Draw32%

Chelsea36%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.44

Everton

1.49

Chelsea

Most likely scores

1–112%
1–29%
2–18%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Everton to Win33%30%3.34

Draw32%26%3.86

Chelsea to Win36%44%2.26

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Everton or Draw65%56%1.79

Chelsea or Draw67%70%1.43

Everton or Chelsea to Win69%74%1.35

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%93%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals6%7%13.56

Over 1.5 Goals80%79%1.27

Under 1.5 Goals20%22%4.66

Over 2.5 Goals58%57%1.76

Under 2.5 Goals42%43%2.32

Over 3.5 Goals34%36%2.79

Under 3.5 Goals66%64%1.56

Over 4.5 Goals16%20%5.01

Under 4.5 Goals84%80%1.25

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes59%60%1.67

Both Teams to Score - No41%40%2.50

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Everton to Score First47%42%2.39

No Goal5%6%16.30

Chelsea to Score First48%52%1.92

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Everton Leads at Half-time29%––

Half-time Draw41%––

Chelsea Leads at Half-time30%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Everton vs Chelsea match analysis

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Everton face Chelsea on 17 October 2026 (Premier League). The MatchIQ model rates a Everton win at 33%, a draw at 32% and a Chelsea win at 36%, which makes Chelsea only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 36%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 30%, 26% and 44% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.44 for Everton and 1.49 for Chelsea, 2.93 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 80%, over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.