Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart odds & probabilities

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK

Hamburger SV

14:30

00:06:00

VfB Stuttgart

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Hamburger SV30%

Draw25%

VfB Stuttgart45%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.33

Hamburger SV

1.83

VfB Stuttgart

Most likely scores

1–110%
1–210%
0–18%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Hamburger SV to Win30%24%4.15

Draw25%23%4.29

VfB Stuttgart to Win45%53%1.90

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Hamburger SV or Draw55%47%2.11

VfB Stuttgart or Draw70%76%1.32

Hamburger SV or VfB Stuttgart to Win75%77%1.30

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals97%94%1.07

Under 0.5 Goals3%6%15.85

Over 1.5 Goals87%85%1.18

Under 1.5 Goals14%15%6.67

Over 2.5 Goals67%68%1.47

Under 2.5 Goals33%32%3.11

Over 3.5 Goals47%48%2.07

Under 3.5 Goals53%52%1.93

Over 4.5 Goals25%30%3.39

Under 4.5 Goals75%71%1.42

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes66%67%1.48

Both Teams to Score - No34%33%3.07

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Hamburger SV to Score First40%38%2.61

No Goal4%5%20.89

VfB Stuttgart to Score First55%57%1.76

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Hamburger SV Leads at Half-time24%––

Half-time Draw39%––

VfB Stuttgart Leads at Half-time37%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 49 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart match analysis

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Hamburger SV face VfB Stuttgart on 17 October 2026 (Bundesliga). The MatchIQ model rates a Hamburger SV win at 30%, a draw at 25% and a VfB Stuttgart win at 45%, which makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 45%. The margin-free average of 49 bookmakers is 24%, 23% and 53% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.33 for Hamburger SV and 1.83 for VfB Stuttgart, 3.16 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 87%, over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 66%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.