Middlesbrough vs Cardiff odds & probabilities

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK

Middlesbrough

In play

Cardiff

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Middlesbrough60%

Draw24%

Cardiff17%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

2.28

Middlesbrough

1.09

Cardiff

Most likely scores

2–110%
2–09%
1–19%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Middlesbrough to Win60%62%1.62

Draw24%20%5.07

Cardiff to Win17%19%5.39

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Middlesbrough or Draw83%81%1.23

Cardiff or Draw40%38%2.61

Middlesbrough or Cardiff to Win77%80%1.25

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals96%94%1.06

Under 0.5 Goals5%6%16.84

Over 1.5 Goals83%86%1.17

Under 1.5 Goals17%15%6.91

Over 2.5 Goals62%69%1.44

Under 2.5 Goals38%31%3.26

Over 3.5 Goals37%49%2.04

Under 3.5 Goals63%51%1.96

Over 4.5 Goals14%31%3.18

Under 4.5 Goals86%69%1.46

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes61%64%1.56

Both Teams to Score - No39%36%2.79

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Middlesbrough to Score First65%63%1.59

No Goal3%4%25.45

Cardiff to Score First31%33%3.03

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Middlesbrough Leads at Half-time47%––

Half-time Draw35%––

Cardiff Leads at Half-time17%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff match analysis

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Middlesbrough face Cardiff on 17 October 2026 (Championship). The MatchIQ model rates a Middlesbrough win at 60%, a draw at 24% and a Cardiff win at 17%, which makes Middlesbrough a clear favourite at 60%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 62%, 20% and 19% respectively.

Expected goals are 2.28 for Middlesbrough and 1.09 for Cardiff, 3.37 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 83%, over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 61%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.