Millwall vs Lincoln odds & probabilities

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK

Millwall

In play

Lincoln

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Millwall60%

Draw25%

Lincoln15%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 43 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.98

Millwall

0.83

Lincoln

Most likely scores

1–012%
2–012%
1–110%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Millwall to Win60%56%1.78

Draw25%24%4.11

Lincoln to Win15%20%5.11

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Millwall or Draw85%80%1.24

Lincoln or Draw40%44%2.28

Millwall or Lincoln to Win75%76%1.32

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%91%1.10

Under 0.5 Goals6%9%10.81

Over 1.5 Goals80%75%1.34

Under 1.5 Goals20%25%3.98

Over 2.5 Goals56%53%1.90

Under 2.5 Goals44%48%2.11

Over 3.5 Goals31%32%3.13

Under 3.5 Goals69%68%1.47

Over 4.5 Goals11%17%5.91

Under 4.5 Goals89%83%1.20

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes58%53%1.90

Both Teams to Score - No42%47%2.11

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Millwall to Score First66%59%1.69

No Goal6%8%12.90

Lincoln to Score First28%33%3.03

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Millwall Leads at Half-time46%––

Half-time Draw39%––

Lincoln Leads at Half-time15%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 43 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Millwall vs Lincoln match analysis

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Millwall face Lincoln on 17 October 2026 (Championship). The MatchIQ model rates a Millwall win at 60%, a draw at 25% and a Lincoln win at 15%, which makes Millwall a clear favourite at 60%. The margin-free average of 43 bookmakers is 56%, 24% and 20% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.98 for Millwall and 0.83 for Lincoln, 2.81 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 80%, over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.