New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire odds & probabilities

MLS · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK

New England Revolution

00:30

11:24:00

Chicago Fire

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

New England Revolution44%

Draw24%

Chicago Fire32%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 45 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.62

New England Revolution

1.45

Chicago Fire

Most likely scores

1–111%
2–19%
1–28%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

New England Revolution to Win44%40%2.51

Draw24%25%4.02

Chicago Fire to Win32%35%2.83

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

New England Revolution or Draw68%65%1.55

Chicago Fire or Draw56%60%1.66

New England Revolution or Chicago Fire to Win76%75%1.33

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals96%92%1.09

Under 0.5 Goals4%8%11.89

Over 1.5 Goals84%83%1.21

Under 1.5 Goals16%17%5.82

Over 2.5 Goals64%64%1.55

Under 2.5 Goals36%36%2.81

Over 3.5 Goals42%44%2.27

Under 3.5 Goals58%56%1.79

Over 4.5 Goals23%27%3.71

Under 4.5 Goals77%73%1.37

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes65%67%1.50

Both Teams to Score - No35%33%3.00

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

New England Revolution to Score First50%49%2.03

No Goal5%4%22.51

Chicago Fire to Score First45%46%2.16

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

New England Revolution Leads at Half-time33%––

Half-time Draw39%––

Chicago Fire Leads at Half-time28%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 45 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire match analysis

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New England Revolution face Chicago Fire on 17 October 2026 (MLS). The MatchIQ model rates a New England Revolution win at 44%, a draw at 24% and a Chicago Fire win at 32%, which makes New England Revolution the favourite at 44%. The margin-free average of 45 bookmakers is 40%, 25% and 35% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.62 for New England Revolution and 1.45 for Chicago Fire, 3.07 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 84%, over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.