New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC prediction

MLS · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK

New York City FC
00:30
1d 15h
Los Angeles FC

Our picks

  • Total goals
    Over 1.5 Goals
    Model 81% · Bookmakers 76.6%
    Odds1.2278%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

New York City FC40%
Draw25%
Los Angeles FC35%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 39 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.34
New York City FC
xG
1.36
Los Angeles FC

Most likely scores

  1. 1–112%
  2. 0–19%
  3. 1–09%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Over 1.5 Goals" a 81% chance; the bookmaker average is 77%, so the model is 4 points more optimistic than the market. Expected goals: New York City FC 1.34, Los Angeles FC 1.36; most likely score 1-1 (12%). Average odds at publication: 1.22.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds
New York City FC to Win40%35%2.90
Draw25%27%3.68
Los Angeles FC to Win35%38%2.61
Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds
New York City FC or Draw65%62%1.62
Los Angeles FC or Draw61%66%1.53
New York City FC or Los Angeles FC to Win75%73%1.37
Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds
Over 0.5 Goals95%91%1.09
Under 0.5 Goals5%9%11.68
Over 1.5 GoalsMatchIQ pick81%77%1.30
Under 1.5 Goals19%23%4.28
Over 2.5 Goals60%55%1.83
Under 2.5 Goals40%46%2.20
Over 3.5 Goals37%34%2.93
Under 3.5 Goals63%66%1.52
Over 4.5 Goals20%19%5.33
Under 4.5 Goals80%81%1.23
Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds
Both Teams to Score - Yes63%59%1.70
Both Teams to Score - No37%41%2.43
First goalModelMarket≈Odds
New York City FC to Score First46%45%2.20
No Goal7%7%14.31
Los Angeles FC to Score First47%48%2.10
Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds
New York City FC Leads at Half-time28%––
Half-time Draw43%––
Los Angeles FC Leads at Half-time29%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 39 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

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