Newcastle United vs Aston Villa odds & probabilities

Premier League · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UK

Newcastle United

17:30

04:24:00

Aston Villa

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Newcastle United40%

Draw31%

Aston Villa29%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.64

Newcastle United

1.36

Aston Villa

Most likely scores

1–111%
2–19%
1–08%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Newcastle United to Win40%42%2.37

Draw31%26%3.87

Aston Villa to Win29%32%3.13

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Newcastle United or Draw71%68%1.47

Aston Villa or Draw60%58%1.73

Newcastle United or Aston Villa to Win69%74%1.35

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%93%1.07

Under 0.5 Goals6%7%15.13

Over 1.5 Goals80%79%1.26

Under 1.5 Goals20%21%4.85

Over 2.5 Goals59%59%1.70

Under 2.5 Goals41%41%2.44

Over 3.5 Goals35%38%2.60

Under 3.5 Goals66%62%1.62

Over 4.5 Goals16%22%4.53

Under 4.5 Goals84%78%1.28

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes60%62%1.62

Both Teams to Score - No40%38%2.60

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Newcastle United to Score First52%51%1.98

No Goal5%6%16.83

Aston Villa to Score First43%44%2.30

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Newcastle United Leads at Half-time34%––

Half-time Draw40%––

Aston Villa Leads at Half-time26%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa match analysis

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Newcastle United face Aston Villa on 17 October 2026 (Premier League). The MatchIQ model rates a Newcastle United win at 40%, a draw at 31% and a Aston Villa win at 29%, which makes Newcastle United the favourite at 40%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 42%, 26% and 32% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.64 for Newcastle United and 1.36 for Aston Villa, 3.00 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 80%, over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.