Norwich City vs Portsmouth FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK

Norwich City
15:00
1d 6h
Portsmouth FC

Our picks

  • Double chance
    Norwich City or Draw
    Model 77% · Bookmakers 79.9%
    Odds1.1679%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Norwich City50%
Draw28%
Portsmouth FC23%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.70
Norwich City
xG
1.04
Portsmouth FC

Most likely scores

  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–110%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Norwich City or Draw" a 77% chance; the bookmaker average is 80%, so the model is 3 points more cautious than the market. Expected goals: Norwich City 1.70, Portsmouth FC 1.04; most likely score 1-1 (11%). Average odds at publication: 1.16; picks this short do not enter our bankroll.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds
Norwich City to Win50%56%1.78
Draw28%24%4.19
Portsmouth FC to Win23%20%4.98
Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds
Norwich City or DrawMatchIQ pick77%80%1.25
Portsmouth FC or Draw50%44%2.28
Norwich City or Portsmouth FC to Win73%76%1.31
Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds
Over 0.5 Goals94%92%1.09
Under 0.5 Goals6%8%12.39
Over 1.5 Goals79%78%1.29
Under 1.5 Goals21%22%4.46
Over 2.5 Goals55%56%1.80
Under 2.5 Goals45%44%2.25
Over 3.5 Goals30%35%2.89
Under 3.5 Goals70%65%1.53
Over 4.5 Goals10%19%5.20
Under 4.5 Goals90%81%1.24
Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds
Both Teams to Score - Yes59%56%1.80
Both Teams to Score - No41%44%2.26
First goalModelMarket≈Odds
Norwich City to Score First58%59%1.69
No Goal7%7%14.02
Portsmouth FC to Score First36%34%2.98
Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds
Norwich City Leads at Half-time38%––
Half-time Draw42%––
Portsmouth FC Leads at Half-time20%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

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