São Paulo FC vs Vasco DA Gama odds & probabilities

Brasileirao · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 01:00 UK

São Paulo FC

01:00

11:17:00

Vasco DA Gama

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

São Paulo FC47%

Draw26%

Vasco DA Gama27%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 40 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.34

São Paulo FC

1.16

Vasco DA Gama

Most likely scores

1–113%
1–011%
0–110%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

São Paulo FC to Win47%45%2.21

Draw26%28%3.60

Vasco DA Gama to Win27%27%3.71

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

São Paulo FC or Draw73%73%1.37

Vasco DA Gama or Draw53%55%1.83

São Paulo FC or Vasco DA Gama to Win74%72%1.38

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals93%89%1.13

Under 0.5 Goals7%11%8.92

Over 1.5 Goals75%70%1.42

Under 1.5 Goals25%30%3.36

Over 2.5 Goals50%46%2.16

Under 2.5 Goals50%54%1.86

Over 3.5 Goals26%26%3.87

Under 3.5 Goals74%74%1.35

Over 4.5 Goals12%13%7.82

Under 4.5 Goals88%87%1.15

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes54%51%1.96

Both Teams to Score - No46%49%2.04

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

São Paulo FC to Score First49%52%1.92

No Goal8%10%10.01

Vasco DA Gama to Score First43%38%2.64

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

São Paulo FC Leads at Half-time30%––

Half-time Draw45%––

Vasco DA Gama Leads at Half-time25%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 40 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

São Paulo FC vs Vasco DA Gama match analysis

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São Paulo FC face Vasco DA Gama on 17 October 2026 (Brasileirao). The MatchIQ model rates a São Paulo FC win at 47%, a draw at 26% and a Vasco DA Gama win at 27%, which makes São Paulo FC a clear favourite at 47%. The margin-free average of 40 bookmakers is 45%, 28% and 27% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.34 for São Paulo FC and 1.16 for Vasco DA Gama, 2.50 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 75%, over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.