Seattle Sounders vs Montréal Impact odds & probabilities

MLS · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 03:30 UK

Seattle Sounders

03:30

14:23:00

Montréal Impact

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Seattle Sounders59%

Draw23%

Montréal Impact18%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 36 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.83

Seattle Sounders

0.96

Montréal Impact

Most likely scores

1–011%
1–111%
2–010%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Seattle Sounders to Win59%62%1.60

Draw23%21%4.85

Montréal Impact to Win18%17%5.91

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Seattle Sounders or Draw82%83%1.20

Montréal Impact or Draw41%38%2.66

Seattle Sounders or Montréal Impact to Win77%79%1.26

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals96%92%1.08

Under 0.5 Goals4%8%12.88

Over 1.5 Goals82%82%1.22

Under 1.5 Goals18%18%5.47

Over 2.5 Goals61%63%1.58

Under 2.5 Goals39%37%2.72

Over 3.5 Goals38%43%2.31

Under 3.5 Goals62%57%1.76

Over 4.5 Goals21%26%3.83

Under 4.5 Goals79%74%1.35

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes62%59%1.70

Both Teams to Score - No38%41%2.43

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Seattle Sounders to Score First62%63%1.59

No Goal6%5%21.39

Montréal Impact to Score First32%32%3.10

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Seattle Sounders Leads at Half-time42%––

Half-time Draw41%––

Montréal Impact Leads at Half-time18%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 36 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Seattle Sounders vs Montréal Impact match analysis

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Seattle Sounders face Montréal Impact on 17 October 2026 (MLS). The MatchIQ model rates a Seattle Sounders win at 59%, a draw at 23% and a Montréal Impact win at 18%, which makes Seattle Sounders a clear favourite at 59%. The margin-free average of 36 bookmakers is 62%, 21% and 17% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.83 for Seattle Sounders and 0.96 for Montréal Impact, 2.79 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 82%, over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.