Southampton vs Bolton odds & probabilities

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK

Southampton

15:00

01:19:00

Bolton

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

What do you say? Vote

Match result odds

Southampton62%

Draw23%

Bolton15%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

2.30

Southampton

0.99

Bolton

Most likely scores

2–010%
2–110%
1–09%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Southampton to Win62%64%1.58

Draw23%20%5.00

Bolton to Win15%17%6.04

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Southampton or Draw85%84%1.20

Bolton or Draw38%37%2.74

Southampton or Bolton to Win77%80%1.25

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals95%94%1.07

Under 0.5 Goals5%6%15.85

Over 1.5 Goals83%84%1.20

Under 1.5 Goals17%17%6.04

Over 2.5 Goals61%66%1.52

Under 2.5 Goals39%34%2.91

Over 3.5 Goals36%46%2.18

Under 3.5 Goals64%54%1.84

Over 4.5 Goals13%28%3.54

Under 4.5 Goals87%72%1.39

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes60%60%1.66

Both Teams to Score - No40%40%2.52

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Southampton to Score First67%64%1.56

No Goal4%4%23.57

Bolton to Score First29%32%3.15

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Southampton Leads at Half-time49%––

Half-time Draw36%––

Bolton Leads at Half-time16%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Southampton vs Bolton match analysis

Download image

Southampton face Bolton on 17 October 2026 (Championship). The MatchIQ model rates a Southampton win at 62%, a draw at 23% and a Bolton win at 15%, which makes Southampton a clear favourite at 62%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 64%, 20% and 17% respectively.

Expected goals are 2.30 for Southampton and 0.99 for Bolton, 3.29 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 83%, over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.