Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction

Eredivisie · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK

Sparta Rotterdam
20:00
1d 11h
Willem II

Our picks

  • Double chance
    Sparta Rotterdam or Draw
    Model 79% · Bookmakers 79.9%
    Odds1.1780%

Odds: median bookmaker price when the pick was published (≈ means derived from the market probability). Only the picks in this box count towards our record.

Match result odds

Sparta Rotterdam55%
Draw24%
Willem II21%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

2.20
Sparta Rotterdam
xG
1.27
Willem II

Most likely scores

  1. 2–110%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 2–08%

Why this pick?

The model gives "Sparta Rotterdam or Draw" a 79% chance; the bookmaker average is 80%, so the model is in line with the market. Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 2.20, Willem II 1.27; most likely score 2-1 (10%). Average odds at publication: 1.17; picks this short do not enter our bankroll.

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds
Sparta Rotterdam to Win55%58%1.72
Draw24%22%4.61
Willem II to Win21%20%4.99
Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds
Sparta Rotterdam or DrawMatchIQ pick79%80%1.25
Willem II or Draw45%42%2.40
Sparta Rotterdam or Willem II to Win77%78%1.28
Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds
Over 0.5 Goals97%93%1.07
Under 0.5 Goals3%7%15.20
Over 1.5 Goals89%83%1.20
Under 1.5 Goals11%17%5.91
Over 2.5 Goals68%65%1.55
Under 2.5 Goals32%35%2.82
Over 3.5 Goals47%45%2.24
Under 3.5 Goals53%55%1.81
Over 4.5 Goals26%27%3.69
Under 4.5 Goals74%73%1.37
Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds
Both Teams to Score - Yes65%62%1.61
Both Teams to Score - No35%38%2.64
First goalModelMarket≈Odds
Sparta Rotterdam to Score First61%61%1.65
No Goal3%5%21.33
Willem II to Score First35%35%2.87
Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds
Sparta Rotterdam Leads at Half-time44%––
Half-time Draw36%––
Willem II Leads at Half-time21%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

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