Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake odds & probabilities

MLS · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 01:30 UK

Sporting Kansas City

01:30

12:23:00

Real Salt Lake

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

What do you say? Vote

Match result odds

Sporting Kansas City35%

Draw24%

Real Salt Lake41%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 45 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.37

Sporting Kansas City

1.64

Real Salt Lake

Most likely scores

1–111%
1–29%
0–18%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Sporting Kansas City to Win35%34%2.98

Draw24%25%4.09

Real Salt Lake to Win41%42%2.38

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Sporting Kansas City or Draw59%58%1.72

Real Salt Lake or Draw65%66%1.51

Sporting Kansas City or Real Salt Lake to Win76%76%1.32

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals96%94%1.06

Under 0.5 Goals4%6%16.84

Over 1.5 Goals83%84%1.20

Under 1.5 Goals17%17%6.06

Over 2.5 Goals63%65%1.55

Under 2.5 Goals37%36%2.82

Over 3.5 Goals41%45%2.23

Under 3.5 Goals59%55%1.81

Over 4.5 Goals23%27%3.65

Under 4.5 Goals78%73%1.38

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes64%67%1.50

Both Teams to Score - No36%33%3.01

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Sporting Kansas City to Score First43%45%2.22

No Goal5%5%21.10

Real Salt Lake to Score First52%50%1.99

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Sporting Kansas City Leads at Half-time27%––

Half-time Draw40%––

Real Salt Lake Leads at Half-time34%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 45 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake match analysis

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Sporting Kansas City face Real Salt Lake on 17 October 2026 (MLS). The MatchIQ model rates a Sporting Kansas City win at 35%, a draw at 24% and a Real Salt Lake win at 41%, which makes Real Salt Lake only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 41%. The margin-free average of 45 bookmakers is 34%, 25% and 42% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.37 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.64 for Real Salt Lake, 3.01 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 83%, over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.