Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain odds & probabilities

Ligue 1 · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK

Strasbourg

16:15

03:09:00

Paris Saint Germain

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Strasbourg36%

Draw24%

Paris Saint Germain40%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 48 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.59

Strasbourg

1.74

Paris Saint Germain

Most likely scores

1–110%
1–29%
2–18%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Strasbourg to Win36%15%6.60

Draw24%18%5.58

Paris Saint Germain to Win40%67%1.49

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Strasbourg or Draw60%33%3.02

Paris Saint Germain or Draw64%85%1.18

Strasbourg or Paris Saint Germain to Win76%82%1.22

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%94%1.06

Under 0.5 Goals6%6%16.87

Over 1.5 Goals80%87%1.15

Under 1.5 Goals20%13%7.55

Over 2.5 Goals62%71%1.40

Under 2.5 Goals38%29%3.48

Over 3.5 Goals39%52%1.93

Under 3.5 Goals61%48%2.08

Over 4.5 Goals18%33%2.99

Under 4.5 Goals82%67%1.50

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes56%63%1.58

Both Teams to Score - No44%37%2.72

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Strasbourg to Score First46%30%3.31

No Goal4%3%31.17

Paris Saint Germain to Score First50%67%1.50

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Strasbourg Leads at Half-time29%––

Half-time Draw38%––

Paris Saint Germain Leads at Half-time33%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 48 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain match analysis

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Strasbourg face Paris Saint Germain on 17 October 2026 (Ligue 1). The MatchIQ model rates a Strasbourg win at 36%, a draw at 24% and a Paris Saint Germain win at 40%, which makes Paris Saint Germain only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 40%. The margin-free average of 48 bookmakers is 15%, 18% and 67% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.59 for Strasbourg and 1.74 for Paris Saint Germain, 3.33 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 80%, over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.