Villarreal vs Elche odds & probabilities

La Liga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK

Villarreal

15:15

00:19:00

Elche

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Villarreal70%

Draw20%

Elche10%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

2.37

Villarreal

0.87

Elche

Most likely scores

2–011%
2–110%
1–09%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Villarreal to Win70%66%1.53

Draw20%19%5.18

Elche to Win10%15%6.60

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Villarreal or Draw90%85%1.18

Elche or Draw30%35%2.90

Villarreal or Elche to Win80%81%1.24

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals96%94%1.07

Under 0.5 Goals4%6%15.91

Over 1.5 Goals82%83%1.20

Under 1.5 Goals18%17%5.91

Over 2.5 Goals61%64%1.55

Under 2.5 Goals39%36%2.80

Over 3.5 Goals37%44%2.29

Under 3.5 Goals63%56%1.78

Over 4.5 Goals22%26%3.78

Under 4.5 Goals78%74%1.36

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes60%58%1.72

Both Teams to Score - No40%42%2.39

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Villarreal to Score First70%66%1.53

No Goal4%5%22.39

Elche to Score First26%30%3.33

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Villarreal Leads at Half-time51%––

Half-time Draw35%––

Elche Leads at Half-time14%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 49 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Villarreal vs Elche match analysis

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Villarreal face Elche on 17 October 2026 (La Liga). The MatchIQ model rates a Villarreal win at 70%, a draw at 20% and a Elche win at 10%, which makes Villarreal a clear favourite at 70%. The margin-free average of 49 bookmakers is 66%, 19% and 15% respectively.

Expected goals are 2.37 for Villarreal and 0.87 for Elche, 3.24 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 82%, over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.